Dejo para otro momento, mas íntimo, mis opiniones sobre lo que aquí se dice (no puedo dejar de sentirme incómodo cuando la crítica acertada a las políticas de gobierno desacertadas termina accidentalmente a contrapelo de los intereses nacionales). Rescato, sí, dos puntos que son como pies de página de un post anterior: (1) el canje (aun con una buena aceptacion) difícilmente eliminará el peligro de embargo; (2) (menos trivial pero implícito en la nota y en la literatura económica sobre defaults) un canje exitoso puede ser bueno para los buitres (me apuro a aclarar que de esto no se desprende la visión conspirativa de que el canje deliberadamente favorece a los buitres; sólo que un gobierno con recursos y posibilidades ciertas de acceso a los mercados tendrá mas incentivos a arreglar sotto voce con u$s 4MM que con u$s 20MM).
Sin duda, nada cambia para quienes tengan el músculo financiero para proseguir con la estrategia judicial. En ningún caso se puede forzar al acreedor a consentir el canje, no al menos en deuda soberana. Y sobre el otro punto, el paraíso del holdout es quedar el sólo en su posición. Será en otro gobierno, pero sin duda los holdouts van a conseguir un acuerdo mejor que el canje, o seguirán us interminable guerra de guerrillas con intentos de embargo
ResponderEliminarHablando de Roma:
ResponderEliminarhttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f299d656-6785-11df-a932-00144feab49a.html
ft, lo tuyo oculto detrás de paywall, pero clarito y gratarola en la sección cascotear el rancho y después (beyond brics) del mismo pasquín
ResponderEliminarUy, perdón. Aquí va el original:
ResponderEliminarUS judge freezes Argentina assets
By Jude Webber in Buenos Aires
Published: May 25 2010 00:12 | Last updated: May 25 2010 09:10
A US judge has frozen $2.43bn of Argentine assets in the US at the behest of class-action plaintiffs, dealing a blow to Argentina as it hopes to win over creditors holding some $18bn in unpaid debt since its 2001 default.
The embargo comes less than a week after Amado Boudou, the economy minister, revealed that the take-up for the early tender period of the swap – in which institutions could sign up without incurring penalties – was $8.5bn, lower than $10bn expected before.
Economy ministry officials could not be reached for comment on the embargo ruling.
Michael Díaz, a lawyer for the plaintiffs, told the Financial Times that the order in no way interfered with Argentina’s swap, which runs until June 7 and which the government hopes will close the chapter on its painful default and allow it to return to raising money on global markets.
But it is another blow to the government as it seeks to win over creditors for an offer that has already slumped in value because of the collapse in the euro in the wake of Greece’s turmoil.
Some of the defaulted bonds are tendered in euros and the overall amount outstanding, in dollar terms, is now believed to be less than the $18bn announced by Argentina at the start of the swap although no exact figures are available.
A source close to the deal told the FT last week that some class action litigants had wanted to enter the swap before a deadline for institutions to sign up without incurring penalties, but had not been able to complete the technicalities in time. Mr Díaz, however, said he believed “less than a third” of such litigants were interested in tendering their bonds.
Judge Griesa’s ruling means that Argentine funds held by the state-run Banco de la Nación can be seized to pay creditors on the basis that the bank is effectively an “alter ego” of the Argentine state. The judge had been hailed as a hero in Argentine media before the swap after he ruled not to impede the offer.
Argentina restructured its defaulted debt in 2005, with a tough offer to creditors that some 75 per cent accepted. The remaining creditors have been fighting on to recover their investment. Argentine officials have been seeking to woo over retail investors – including people owed some $5bn in Italy – before the end of the swap, but another lawyer said there was “a lot of anger” among small creditors at the way the exchange had been handled.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2010
FT: Parece que los buitres sobrestimaron su éxito en los medios. Si lo que me cuentan es correcto, el embargo no fue sobre el Banco Nación sino sobre cuentas del Estado en el Nación (donde por otro lado parece que no hay un peso) como fruto de un pedido que predata al canje, por lo que la versión de que esto confirmaba el éxito del argumento del alter ego, que se difundió en los medios, es incorrecta. Esta info no quita que el factor Griesa sigue allí pero, de ser cierto, indicaría que todo el incidente fue una movida publicitaria más que otra cosa.
ResponderEliminarNo tengo duda de que de este tema se menos que vos, pero parece queno solo "los medios" están confundidos. Recién estaba leyendo el comentario de JPMorgan del 24-5. Dice entre otras cosas:
ResponderEliminarJudge Griesa granted class action creditors a restraining order against Banco Nacion assets in the US. Banco Nacion is Argentina's largest public bank and had avoided attachments in the US in the past. But creditors were now awarded a restraining order based on the "alter ego" argument which became relevant this year as Argentina began using Central Bank reserves to pay Treasury debt (which implies that the balance sheet of public entities that were previously deemed independent, like those of the central bank, are deemed fungible with the Treasury).
Banco Nacion will probably appeal this ruling but the signal that prospects for obtaining attachments improve may reduce the inclination of litigating investors in the class actions to participate in the debt swap. Admittedly, this inclination was deemed quite low by the market but at the margin it give hope of settling claims through the court to a subset of litigationg creditors that were unsatisfied due to inability to find assets to attach so far.
Note two things: first, the $2.4 billion of class action claims reflects the full outstanding of the bond series registered for the class action but the actual amount of bonds involved in litigation are significantly less. Thus, if the impact of this ruling is to subtract from the potential participation rate of the exchange its impact will be much smaller than what that figure may suggest. Second, according to the US Fed, the NY and Miami branch of Banco Nacion have total assets of $450 million which means that this is the maximum amount available in the US for which claims in the class action might ultimately be settled through the court off the back of this ruling.
FT: si todos dijéramos lo mismo no habría nada que informar...
ResponderEliminarAunque no soy un abogado, da la impresión de que esto, escrito por un estudio de abogados, está en línea con lo que vos decís, ¿no?:
ResponderEliminar"In response to a request from eight plaintiff class-action groups holding defaulted Argentine bonds, U.S. District Court Judge Thomas P. Griesa today issued a restraining order that freezes $2.43 billion in Argentine government assets held by Banco de la Nación Argentina.
[...]
The restraining order from Judge Griesa will allow the plaintiffs to attach all available U.S. assets held by Argentina in the name of its alter ego, Banco de la Nación Argentina. The order also halts any "sale, assignment, transfer or interference with any property" in which the government has an interest.
http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/US-Judge-Grants-Restraining-Order-on-Argentine-Government-Assets-243-Billion-Class-Action-1265312.htm
El primer párrafo es la explicación correcta. El seguno hace un uso equívoco del término alter ego, que puede ser lo que haya confundido a los periodistas (y a la gente de JP).
ResponderEliminarCon esto no hincho más: acabo de ver un análisis, de circulación privada, del fallo (cuyo original también me acaba de llegar) y parece que tenés total y absoluta razón en lo que dijiste: una movida mediática de los abogados, exagerando muchísimo su logro, que parece haber sido muy poco.
ResponderEliminarComo el análisis proviene de una institución con la que creo aún tenés un vínculo, no me extrañaría que estemos leyendo la misma cosa.